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Liberia vs Guadalupe Prediction & H2H Stats

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Villalobos M.
46'
Sub
Hernandez A. In: Chal J.
Out: Hernandez A.
46'
Sub
Arevalo T. In: Hudson A.
Out: Arevalo T.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Liberia and Guadalupe finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liberia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Liberia
30%
Draws
12%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Liberia come out ahead of Guadalupe on wins alone.
  • Model gives Liberia a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Liberia Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Guadalupe
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 4
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.17 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.3 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:0
Jan 19, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Liberia
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:0
Sep 17, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Liberia
2:2
Aug 23, 2024 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Guadalupe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 95 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liberia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Guadalupe has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Liberia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Guadalupe
1.17 Goals Scored 0.63
0.83 Goals Conceded 2.5
67% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Guadalupe

(Away)
27 Sept
Guadalupe
2 : 2
Pitbulls
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
06 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 1
CS Uruguay
29 Aug
Cariari Pococi
3 : 3
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)