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Liberia vs Guadalupe

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Villalobos M.
46'
Sub
Hernandez A. In: Chal J.
Out: Hernandez A.
46'
Sub
Arevalo T. In: Hudson A.
Out: Arevalo T.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Liberia and Guadalupe finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liberia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Liberia
6%
Draws
4%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Liberia come out ahead of Guadalupe on wins alone.
  • Model gives Liberia a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Liberia Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Guadalupe
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.75 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:0
Jan 19, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Liberia
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:0
Sep 17, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Liberia
2:2
Aug 23, 2024 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Guadalupe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Guadalupe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 95 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Guadalupe has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Liberia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Guadalupe
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 7

Guadalupe

(Away)
26 Apr
Guadalupe
0 : 5
Cartagines
23 Apr
Saprissa
5 : 0
Guadalupe
18 Apr
Guadalupe
1 : 0
Zeledon
13 Apr
San Carlos
4 : 0
Guadalupe
06 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)