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Liberia vs Guanacasteca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2024/2025 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Mora J.
7' Event
Pilone M.
23'
Mendez G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Primera Division 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Liberia
15%
Draws
0%
Guanacasteca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Liberia lately — more wins on the board than Guanacasteca.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Liberia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Liberia Clean Sheet 68%
Guanacasteca Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Guanacasteca
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.06 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guanacasteca
1:1
Jan 11, 2025 Primera Division
Guanacasteca vs Liberia
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Primera Division
Guanacasteca vs Liberia
2:0
Sep 15, 2024 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guanacasteca
0:1
Apr 13, 2024 Primera Division
Liberia vs Guanacasteca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Pilone M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Guanacasteca Compare

Top Goalscorer Mora J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 95 / 100
Guanacasteca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Guanacasteca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liberia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Guanacasteca registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Liberia scored in 77% of their last 35 outings.

Guanacasteca has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Liberia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
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Guanacasteca

(Away)
07 May
Guanacasteca
0 : 3
Herediano
04 May
Saprissa
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
26 Apr
Guanacasteca
0 : 3
Sporting FC
20 Apr
Cartagines
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
15 Apr
Zeledon
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 22 13 7 2 38:18 46
2 Alajuelense 22 10 12 0 28:12 42
3 Puntarenas FC 22 11 8 3 29:18 41
4 Saprissa 22 11 6 5 30:18 39
5 Cartagines 22 11 5 6 29:16 38
6 Sporting FC 22 9 4 9 25:28 31
7 Liberia 22 7 3 12 26:26 24
8 Santos De Guapiles 22 6 6 10 26:33 24
9 Zeledon 22 6 5 11 16:28 23
10 San Carlos 22 4 7 11 16:23 19
11 Guanacasteca 22 3 7 12 12:33 16
12 Santa Ana 22 2 8 12 22:44 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)