Sport Picks

Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asunción

Guarani

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Libertad Asuncion have averaged 1.39 scored and 1.27 conceded recently, against Guarani's 0.97 scored and 0.86 conceded. Head-to-head, Libertad Asuncion have won 1 to Guarani's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 2, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.00) point toward Libertad Asuncion. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Libertad Asuncion

30%

Draws

37%

Guarani

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence

Guarani haven't matched Libertad Asuncion's recent run of results.
36% — that's where the model lands on Libertad Asuncion taking it.
Libertad Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Guarani, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 26%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%

Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%

Guarani Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Libertad Asuncion	Guarani
Matches Played	33	29
Wins	16	10
Draws	4	11
Losses	13	8
Goals Scored	1.39	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.27	0.86
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Copa de Primera

Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion

2:1

Apr 5, 2026 Copa de Primera

Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion

1:0

Feb 8, 2026 Copa de Primera

Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani

3:3

Nov 9, 2025 Copa de Primera

Guarani vs Libertad Asuncion

1:2

Oct 1, 2025 Copa Paraguay

Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani

2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 36 / 100

Guarani 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Libertad Asuncion Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Libertad Asuncion's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Libertad Asuncion went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Guarani conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS Guarani

1.5 Goals Scored 1

1 Goals Conceded 0.5

75% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 0%

13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History