Sport Picks

Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Recoleta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Libertad Asuncion play Recoleta in the Copa de Primera. It looks like a close match. Recently, Libertad Asuncion averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Recoleta averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Libertad Asuncion won 1, Recoleta won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 30, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Libertad Asuncion and 1.88 for Recoleta. This points to a Recoleta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

Libertad Asuncion

33%

Draws

35%

Recoleta

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Recoleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Libertad Asuncion picked up more points recently compared to Recoleta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%

Recoleta Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Libertad Asuncion	Recoleta
Matches Played	32	32
Wins	11	11
Draws	4	10
Losses	17	11
Goals Scored	1.34	1.47
Goals Conceded	1.34	1.28
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 Copa de Primera

Libertad Asuncion vs Recoleta

Possession: 42% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Feb 2, 2026 Copa de Primera

Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion

Possession: 59% - 60% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Oct 26, 2025 Copa de Primera

Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion

Possession: 57% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

2:2

Aug 10, 2025 Copa de Primera

Libertad Asuncion vs Recoleta

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 0 - 0

1:1

Apr 14, 2025 Copa de Primera

Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion

Possession: 43% - 41% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Recoleta Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 31 / 100

Recoleta 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Libertad Asuncion Recoleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Recoleta or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Libertad Asuncion attacking → ← attacking Recoleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad Asuncion scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Recoleta let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Libertad Asuncion went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Recoleta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 43

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	22	15	4	3	37:17	49
2	Nacional Asuncion	22	10	9	3	31:22	39
3	Cerro Porteno	22	11	5	6	30:22	38
4	Sportivo Ameliano	22	8	9	5	27:21	33
5	Sportivo Trinidense	22	8	8	6	30:24	32
6	Libertad Asuncion	22	9	4	9	34:26	31
7	Guarani	22	7	8	7	27:23	29
8	Recoleta	22	8	4	10	35:32	28
9	Rubio Nu	22	6	5	11	15:26	23
10	2 de Mayo	22	5	7	10	18:35	22
11	Sp. Luqueno	22	5	5	12	24:33	20
12	San Lorenzo	22	3	6	13	14:41	15