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Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asunción
Libertad Asuncion Logo

Libertad Asuncion

1 - 1
FT
Sportivo Ameliano Logo

Sportivo Ameliano

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Cabral R.
42'
Paredes A.
42'
Carrizo F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Libertad Asuncion
30%
Draws
31%
Sportivo Ameliano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Libertad Asuncion come out ahead of Sportivo Ameliano on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Libertad Asuncion's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Libertad Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sportivo Ameliano, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 13
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.39 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:1
Mar 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
2:0
Jan 28, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:2
Aug 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sportivo Ameliano Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreira E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 40 / 100
Sportivo Ameliano 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Asuncion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sportivo Ameliano let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Libertad Asuncion scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Libertad Asuncion stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS Sportivo Ameliano
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad Asuncion

(Home)
05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
28 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1
Olimpia Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 7

Sportivo Ameliano

(Away)
06 Oct
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2
Rubio Nu
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0
San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 13 8 2 3 22:10 26
2 Libertad Asuncion 13 8 2 3 21:14 26
3 2 de Mayo 13 7 4 2 16:13 25
4 Sportivo Trinidense 14 7 3 4 24:14 24
5 Nacional Asuncion 13 6 5 2 20:8 23
6 Guarani 13 5 6 2 14:10 21
7 Cerro Porteno 14 6 2 6 18:14 20
8 Sportivo Ameliano 13 4 6 3 15:15 18
9 Sp. Luqueno 14 4 1 9 14:27 13
10 Rubio Nu 13 3 3 7 15:24 12
11 Recoleta 13 2 2 9 14:26 8
12 San Lorenzo 14 0 4 10 5:23 4
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)