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Libertad vs Orense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Branda V.
Assist: Coronel D.
45' Event
Chere A.
46'
Sub
Jaramilo R. In: Pluas E.
Out: Jaramilo R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Libertad and Orense finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Libertad
15%
Draws
21%
Orense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Libertad come out ahead of Orense on wins alone.
  • Libertad are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Libertad Clean Sheet 68%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Orense
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.31 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Orense
3:0
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
3:2
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Orense
2:0
Jul 13, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Branda V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chere A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Orense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 95 / 100
Orense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Orense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Libertad scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Orense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Libertad went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Orense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
17 Oct
Libertad
4 : 0
Guayaquil City
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
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Orense

(Away)
11 Oct
Orense
0 : 0
Dep. Cuenca
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)