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Ligorna vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Bacigalupo A.
35' Event
Tassotti R.
37' Event
Battistello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Ligorna and Castanese finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Ligorna
30%
Draws
16%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Ligorna carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ligorna are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 68%
Castanese Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ligorna Castanese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 5
Draws 6 11
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2 1
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Castanese
2:1
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Ligorna
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Bacigalupo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tassotti R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Castanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Battistello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ligorna 59 / 100
Castanese 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ligorna Castanese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ligorna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Ligorna found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Ligorna has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ligorna VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ligorna

(Home)
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
Page 1 of 7

Castanese

(Away)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)