Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ligorna vs Derthona FbC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Piredda M.
14' Event
Artiglia E.
45' Event
Moriano A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Ligorna and Derthona FbC finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derthona FbC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Ligorna
20%
Draws
38%
Derthona FbC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ligorna come out ahead of Derthona FbC on wins alone.
  • 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ligorna have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 68%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ligorna Derthona FbC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 2.07 0.9
Goals Conceded 1 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Derthona FbC
2:3
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Derthona FbC
1:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Ligorna
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Derthona FbC
2:1
Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Ligorna
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Piredda M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Leo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Derthona FbC Compare

Top Goalscorer Artiglia E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lovaglio S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ligorna 41 / 100
Derthona FbC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ligorna Derthona FbC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ligorna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ligorna's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Derthona FbC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ligorna remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ligorna VS Derthona FbC
2.88 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ligorna

(Home)
04 Oct
Ligorna
2 : 1
Saluzzo
27 Sept
Chisola
1 : 2
Ligorna
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
Page 1 of 6

Derthona FbC

(Away)
04 Oct
Derthona FbC
1 : 3
Alessandria
27 Sept
Saluzzo
0 : 0
Derthona FbC
20 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Millesimo
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 1
Imperia Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alessandria 6 5 0 1 12:8 15
2 AS Biellese 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
3 Derthona FbC 6 3 2 1 7:6 11
4 Ligorna 6 3 1 2 11:10 10
5 Asti Calcio 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
6 Gozzano 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
7 Saluzzo 6 2 3 1 9:6 9
8 Millesimo 6 3 0 3 8:6 9
9 Chisola 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
10 Imperia Calcio 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
11 GSD Lascaris 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
12 Sanremese 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
13 Fezzanese 6 2 1 3 7:7 7
14 Sestri Levante 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Borgosesia Calcio 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
16 Bra 6 1 2 3 4:7 5
17 Valenzana 6 1 1 4 7:10 4
18 Celle Varazze 6 0 0 6 1:13 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)