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Ligorna vs Lavagnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Pastore M.
54' Event
Vuthaj D.
66' Event
Lombardi A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Ligorna and Lavagnese finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Ligorna
6%
Draws
4%
Lavagnese
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Lavagnese haven't matched Ligorna's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Ligorna a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ligorna have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 68%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ligorna Lavagnese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 4
Draws 7 10
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 0.63 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Lavagnese
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Ligorna
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Ligorna
1:2
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Lavagnese
2:0
Jan 21, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Ligorna
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Pastore M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vuthaj D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Lavagnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Lombardi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ligorna 95 / 100
Lavagnese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ligorna Lavagnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lavagnese conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Ligorna went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Ligorna scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Ligorna VS Lavagnese
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ligorna

(Home)
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
10 May
Ligorna
1 : 0
Chisola
03 May
Ligorna
9 : 1
NovaRomentin
26 Apr
Asti Calcio
1 : 1
Ligorna
19 Apr
Ligorna
2 : 1
AS Biellese
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Lavagnese

(Away)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vado34246469:2478
2Ligorna34219464:2672
3AS Biellese34169948:2957
4Varese FC341681043:4356
5Chisola341671144:3655
6Sestri Levante341591054:3454
7Sanremese3413101137:3049
8Valenzana341291333:4845
9Celle Varazze341281441:4744
10Saluzzo3411101348:4443
11Club Milano341261643:4942
12Imperia Calcio3410111336:4441
13Cairese349131229:3440
14Derthona FbC341171636:4640
15Gozzano349121337:4239
16Asti Calcio348111532:4235
17Lavagnese345121732:5227
18NovaRomentin34632526:8216
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)