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Lille W vs Le Mans W

France France

Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Le Mans W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Lille W
30%
Draws
47%
Le Mans W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Le Mans W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Le Mans W come out ahead of Lille W on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Le Mans W's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Le Mans W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Le Mans W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Lille W Clean Sheet 10%
Le Mans W Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille W Le Mans W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.28 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Seconde Ligue Women
Le Mans W vs Lille W
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Lille W vs Le Mans W
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Coupe de la Ligue Women
Lille W vs Le Mans W
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Lille W vs Le Mans W
1:1
Nov 3, 2024 Seconde Ligue Women
Le Mans W vs Lille W
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille W 26 / 100
Le Mans W 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille W Le Mans W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Le Mans W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille W's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Lille W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Le Mans W let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lille W VS Le Mans W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille W

(Home)
26 Sept
Strasbourg W
4 : 3
Lille W
20 Sept
Nice W
0 : 0
Lille W
13 Sept
Lille W
2 : 2
Bourges 18 W
06 Sept
Lille W
3 : 2
Auxerre W
29 Aug
Nice W
3 : 2
Lille W
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Le Mans W

(Away)
13 Sept
St Etienne W
1 : 1
Le Mans W
06 Sept
Bourges 18 W
1 : 2
Le Mans W
29 Aug
Roubaix W
1 : 0
Le Mans W
23 Aug
Le Mans W
3 : 0
Grenoble W
12 Aug
Saint-Malo W
0 : 1
Le Mans W
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon W 4 4 0 0 15:2 12
2 Metz W 4 3 0 1 11:5 9
3 Strasbourg W 4 2 0 2 4:9 6
4 Auxerre W 4 1 0 3 9:9 3
5 Reims W 4 0 0 4 1:15 0
Promotion - Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thonon Evian W 3 3 0 0 4:2 8
2 Nice W 3 1 0 2 5:2 4
3 St Etienne W 3 1 0 2 6:8 3
4 Grenoble W 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
Promotion - Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marseille W 3 3 0 0 7:4 8
2 Montpellier W 3 2 0 1 7:3 7
3 Toulouse W 3 1 0 2 2:6 3
4 Rodez AF W 3 0 0 3 2:5 0
Promotion - Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lens W 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Fleury 91 W 3 2 0 1 10:4 6
3 Le Mans W 3 1 0 2 5:8 3
4 Lille W 3 0 0 3 2:9 0
Promotion - Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nantes W 3 3 0 0 9:3 8
2 Le Havre W 3 2 0 1 6:2 6
3 Saint-Malo W 3 1 0 2 6:5 4
4 Guingamp W 3 0 0 3 1:12 0
Promotion - Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)