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Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lillestrom host Real Sociedad in the Europa League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Lillestrom have averaged 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded recently, against Real Sociedad's 1.5 scored and 1.82 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.75 - 1.44) back Lillestrom to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Lillestrom
15%
Draws
39%
Real Sociedad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lillestrom

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Real Sociedad haven't matched Lillestrom's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Lillestrom a 42% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Europa League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Lillestrom Clean Sheet 16%
Real Sociedad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lillestrom Real Sociedad
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.44 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lillestrom 41 / 100
Real Sociedad 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lillestrom Real Sociedad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Real Sociedad conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Lillestrom scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Lillestrom has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Real Sociedad lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lillestrom VS Real Sociedad
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lillestrom

(Home)
11 Oct
Lillestrom
2 : 2
Molde
01 Oct
Baerum
1 : 5
Lillestrom
20 Sept
Viking
3 : 0
Lillestrom
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2
Torreense
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0
Valerenga
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Real Sociedad

(Away)
11 Oct
Real Sociedad
3 : 2
Dep. A Coruna
02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Ath Bilbao
20 Sept
Valencia
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
17 Sept
Real Sociedad
1 : 2
Bournemouth
13 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 3
Atl. Madrid
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
3 Sparta Prague 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Royale Union SG 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Ferencvaros 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 OFI Crete 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Olympiacos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 Omonia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
19 Din. Zagreb 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
20 H. Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
29 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
36 Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)