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Lithuania vs Azerbaijan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
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Match Events

9' Event
Kucys A.
(Penalty)
14' Event
Emreli M.
Assist: Mutallimov T.
27'
Mammadov R.

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Lithuania and Azerbaijan finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Lithuania
30%
Draws
43%
Azerbaijan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Azerbaijan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

27% / Low Confidence
  • Lithuania haven't matched Azerbaijan's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lithuania's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 68%
Azerbaijan Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lithuania Azerbaijan
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 0.89 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
1:0
Sep 27, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
1:1
Mar 25, 2019 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
0:0
Mar 26, 2008 Friendly International
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
1:0
Jun 26, 1998 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Azerbaijan Compare

Top Goalscorer Emreli M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lithuania 77 / 100
Azerbaijan 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lithuania Azerbaijan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lithuania Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Azerbaijan conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Lithuania stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Lithuania VS Azerbaijan
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lithuania

(Home)
04 Oct
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Lithuania
30 Sept
Lithuania
3 : 0
Andorra
27 Sept
Lithuania
1 : 1
Azerbaijan
24 Sept
Liechtenstein
0 : 2
Lithuania
09 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Lithuania
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Azerbaijan

(Away)
04 Oct
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Lithuania
01 Oct
Azerbaijan
0 : 0
Liechtenstein
27 Sept
Lithuania
1 : 1
Azerbaijan
23 Sept
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Tajikistan
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malta 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 Gibraltar 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
3 Andorra 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Azerbaijan 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
2 Lithuania 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Liechtenstein 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League C)