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World

World Championship 2026 S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Malta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lithuania play Malta in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Malta averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Lithuania won 1, Malta won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Sep 4, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Lithuania and 1.38 for Malta. This points to a Malta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Lithuania

30%

Draws

36%

Malta

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Malta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Lithuania picked up more points recently compared to Malta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 37%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 17%

Malta Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lithuania	Malta
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	6	7
Draws	5	5
Losses	17	17
Goals Scored	0.82	0.69
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.93
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2025 World Championship

Lithuania vs Malta

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Jun 7, 2025 World Championship

Malta vs Lithuania

Possession: 51% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Oct 5, 2017 World Championship

Malta vs Lithuania

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Oct 11, 2016 World Championship

Lithuania vs Malta

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Jun 8, 2015 Friendly International

Malta vs Lithuania

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 0 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Malta Compare

Top Goalscorer Satariano A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lithuania 34 / 100

Malta 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lithuania Malta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Malta or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.5%

3.23

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lithuania attacking → ← attacking Malta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Malta let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Lithuania went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Malta lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 26

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0