Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Liverpool M. vs Danubio

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Martinez F.
59'
Sub
Cabrera E. In: Fernandez S.
Out: Cabrera E.
61'
Sub
Zabala D. In: Degregorio R. M.
Out: Zabala D.

AI Match Summary

Liverpool M. in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Liverpool M.
28%
Draws
22%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Liverpool M. have won more games recently than Danubio.
  • Liverpool M. are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%
Danubio Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. Danubio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Danubio
3:0
Aug 3, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Danubio
0:0
Feb 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
1:1
Sep 22, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
1:0
Jul 28, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Degregorio R. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Danubio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 59 / 100
Danubio 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liverpool M. found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Danubio conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Liverpool M. stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS Danubio
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
25 Jul
Defensor Sp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2
CA Cerro
08 Jun
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Cerro Largo
01 Jun
Boston River
0 : 1
Liverpool M.
22 May
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
Page 1 of 6

Danubio

(Away)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)