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Liverpool M. vs Danubio Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Martinez F.
59'
Sub
Cabrera E. In: Fernandez S.
Out: Cabrera E.
61'
Sub
Zabala D. In: Degregorio R. M.
Out: Zabala D.

AI Match Summary

Liverpool M. in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Liverpool M.
35%
Draws
15%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Liverpool M. have won more games recently than Danubio.
  • Liverpool M. are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%
Danubio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. Danubio
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 3
Draws 9 13
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.38 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Danubio
3:0
Aug 3, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Danubio
0:0
Feb 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
1:1
Sep 22, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
1:0
Jul 28, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Liverpool M.
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Degregorio R. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Danubio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 68 / 100
Danubio 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Danubio conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Liverpool M. found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Liverpool M. stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS Danubio
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
23 Sept
Liverpool M.
3 : 0
Colon
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
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Danubio

(Away)
27 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Danubio
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Penarol
20 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Wanderers
13 Sept
Juventud
1 : 1
Danubio
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)