Sport Picks

Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Armando Picchi

Livorno

1 - 2

Perugia

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Panaioli L.

48'

Vayrynen T.

52'

Montevago D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B game between Livorno and Perugia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perugia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Livorno

30%

Draws

34%

Perugia

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Livorno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Livorno come out ahead of Perugia on wins alone.
36% — that's where the model lands on Livorno taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Perugia have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%

Livorno Clean Sheet 18%

Perugia Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Livorno	Perugia
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	10	8
Draws	6	11
Losses	12	10
Goals Scored	1	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Serie C - Group B

Livorno vs Perugia

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Oct 27, 2025 Serie C - Group B

Perugia vs Livorno

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 4 - 4

2:0

Jan 27, 2020 Serie B

Perugia vs Livorno

Possession: 52% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Aug 31, 2019 Serie B

Livorno vs Perugia

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Mar 30, 2019 Serie B

Perugia vs Livorno

Possession: 59% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Livorno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Montevago D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Bacchin L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Livorno 36 / 100

Perugia 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Livorno Perugia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Livorno scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Livorno has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Livorno VS Perugia

1 Goals Scored 1.13

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

88% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arezzo	36	24	8	4	64:24	80
2	Ascoli	36	23	8	5	63:23	77
3	Ravenna	36	22	7	7	50:30	73
4	Campobasso	36	17	10	9	49:37	59
5	Juventus U23	36	14	11	11	46:43	53
6	Pianese	36	11	17	8	37:34	50
7	Pineto	36	13	11	12	42:45	50
8	Gubbio	36	11	15	10	31:32	48
9	Ternana	36	14	11	11	44:40	48
10	Vis Pesaro	36	11	13	12	38:36	46
11	Livorno	36	12	7	17	39:51	43
12	Forli FC	36	10	10	16	41:52	40
13	Carpi	36	10	10	16	35:48	40
14	Perugia	36	8	14	14	38:44	38
15	Guidonia 1937	36	8	14	14	30:36	38
16	Sambenedettese	36	8	13	15	30:37	37
17	Sassari Torres	36	6	18	12	32:45	36
18	Bra	36	6	14	16	37:54	32
19	US Pontedera	36	3	11	22	27:62	20
20	Rimini	0	0	0	0	0:0	0