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Llanes vs Covadonga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Trabanco A.
47' Event
Germanier B.
49' Event
Cueto G.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 game between Llanes and Covadonga finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Covadonga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Llanes
15%
Draws
49%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Covadonga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Llanes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Llanes Clean Sheet 10%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llanes Covadonga
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 7 23
Draws 11 4
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.41 2.45
Goals Conceded 1.59 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Llanes vs Covadonga
1:4
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Llanes
0:0
Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Llanes vs Covadonga
1:3
Oct 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Llanes
0:0
May 1, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Llanes
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Llanes Compare

Top Goalscorer Roldan I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Cueto G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Trabanco A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llanes 65 / 100
Covadonga 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llanes Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Llanes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llanes scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Covadonga lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Covadonga conceded in 55% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Llanes VS Covadonga
1.13 Goals Scored 2.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Llanes

(Home)
08 Aug
Llanes
2 : 3
Langreo
10 May
EI San Martin
1 : 0
Llanes
03 May
Llanes
1 : 4
Covadonga
26 Apr
Aviles Stadium
0 : 1
Llanes
19 Apr
Llanes
0 : 1
Llanera
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Covadonga

(Away)
05 Aug
Real Oviedo B
6 : 0
Covadonga
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4
Caudal Deportivo
31 May
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 1
Covadonga
24 May
Covadonga
2 : 1
CD Mosconia
17 May
CD Mosconia
0 : 0
Covadonga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llanera 34 29 4 1 71:18 91
2 Covadonga 34 25 5 4 88:24 80
3 Gijon B 34 19 10 5 79:29 67
4 Caudal Deportivo 34 20 6 8 59:39 66
5 CD Mosconia 34 16 7 11 46:29 55
6 EI San Martin 34 14 9 11 36:36 51
7 L Entregu CF 34 13 10 11 41:42 49
8 Union Club Ceares 34 12 9 13 39:40 45
9 Praviano 34 11 9 14 36:42 42
10 Club Siero 34 11 8 15 39:49 41
11 CD Colunga 34 10 9 15 38:59 39
12 Llanes 34 8 13 13 44:51 37
13 Aviles Stadium 34 6 15 13 21:40 33
14 Gijon Industrial 34 7 11 16 36:57 32
15 Lenense 34 7 11 16 36:58 32
16 Navarro 34 6 13 15 38:53 31
17 Tuilla 34 7 6 21 31:60 27
18 Real Titanico 34 3 9 22 22:74 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Offs)