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Stadium Background

Llantwit Major vs Newport City

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Kavanagh R.
45' Event
Kavanagh R.
61'
Hillman D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Llantwit Major
6%
Draws
4%
Newport City
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Llantwit Major

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Llantwit Major lately — more wins on the board than Newport City.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Llantwit Major taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 68%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llantwit Major Newport City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 2.13 1
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Llantwit Major
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Newport City
2:2
Mar 28, 2025 Cymru South
Newport City vs Llantwit Major
2:1
Oct 12, 2024 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Newport City
1:1
Jul 20, 2024 League Cup
Llantwit Major vs Newport City
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Llantwit Major Compare

Top Goalscorer Rowe K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jones L. R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Newport City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kavanagh R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llantwit Major 95 / 100
Newport City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llantwit Major Newport City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LLA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llantwit Major found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Newport City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Newport City has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Llantwit Major VS Newport City
2.13 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Trefelin30253283:1778
2Cambrian United30244275:2076
3Ammanford Town30179449:2660
4Caerau Ely30176766:3457
5Carmarthen Town301112745:3845
6Aberystwyth301351235:3844
7Cardiff Draconians301241450:4840
8Llantwit Major309101144:4737
9Treowen301071351:6337
10Newport City309101136:4837
11Pontypridd United30971446:5134
12Afan Lido30931832:5730
13Trethomas Bluebirds306111345:6229
14Baglan Dragons305101526:5225
15Ynyshir Albions30581727:5623
16Cwmbran Celtic30172225:7810