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Llay Welfare vs Denbigh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

League Cup 2024/2025
Llay Welfare Logo

Llay Welfare

3 - 1
FT
Denbigh Logo

Denbigh

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Davies O.
45' Event
Worrall M.
63' Event
Lima R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Llay Welfare in this League Cup 2024/2025 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Llay Welfare
15%
Draws
28%
Denbigh
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Llay Welfare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Denbigh lately — more wins on the board than Llay Welfare.
  • Model gives Llay Welfare a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Denbigh arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Llay Welfare, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Llay Welfare Clean Sheet 19%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llay Welfare Denbigh
Matches Played 27 36
Wins 5 16
Draws 3 2
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 1.26 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.44 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Llay Welfare vs Denbigh
1:2
Apr 4, 2025 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Llay Welfare
5:0
Nov 30, 2024 Cymru North
Llay Welfare vs Denbigh
3:2
Jul 19, 2024 League Cup
Llay Welfare vs Denbigh
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Llay Welfare Compare

Top Goalscorer Worrall M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lima R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Denbigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Davies O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llay Welfare 85 / 100
Denbigh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llay Welfare Denbigh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Llay Welfare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llay Welfare found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

Denbigh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 92% of 36 matches.

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Denbigh has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Denbigh
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Llay Welfare

(Home)
22 Jul
Llay Welfare
4 : 0
Ellesmere Port
05 Jul
Llay Welfare
2 : 0
Llansantffraid Village
01 Jul
Llay Welfare
1 : 2
Denbigh
12 Apr
Llay Welfare
1 : 2
Guilsfield
04 Apr
Denbigh
5 : 0
Llay Welfare
Page 1 of 6

Denbigh

(Away)
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4
Holyhead
26 Sept
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0
Denbigh
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3
Rhyl
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Prestatyn 1
Buckley 5
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Colwyn Bay -
TBD -
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Llandudno FC 3
Newport 0
Penrhyncoch 0
Guilsfield 3
Cardiff U21 3
Afan Lido 1
TBD -
Pontypridd United -
Taffs Well 1
Merthyr Town 3
TBD -
Ammanford Town -
Llantwit Major 2
Newport City 0
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
Goytre Utd 4
Caerau Ely 2
Trefelin 1
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 3
Baglan Dragons 2
Swansea U21 1
Barry Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Llanelli -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Carmarthen Town 2
Cambrian United 1
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Flint Mountain 0
Gresford 3
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Mold Alexandra 2
TNS -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Town -
Ruthin Town 2
Bangor 1876 1
TBD -
Bala -
Caersws FC 0
Holywell Town FC 1
Llay Welfare 3
Denbigh 1
1/16-finals
Buckley 0
Connahs Q. 3
Newtown 2
Caernarfon 3
Colwyn Bay 0
Aberystwyth 2
Llandudno FC 3
Guilsfield 2
Cardiff U21 3
Pontypridd United 1
Merthyr Town 2
Ammanford Town 0
Llantwit Major 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Goytre Utd 3
Caerau Ely 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 3
Baglan Dragons 1
Barry Town 2
Llanelli 1
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 0
Haverfordwest 5
Gresford 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
TNS 5
Flint Town 1
Ruthin Town 0
Bala 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Llay Welfare 1
1/8-finals
Connahs Q. 3
Caernarfon 2
Aberystwyth 3
Llandudno FC 2
Cardiff U21 2
Merthyr Town 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 9
Goytre Utd 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Barry Town 4
Penybont 1
Haverfordwest 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
TNS 1
Bala 2
Holywell Town FC 0
Quarter-finals
Connahs Q. 1
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff U21 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Barry Town 3
Penybont 2
TNS 3
Bala 1
Semi-finals
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff U21 1
Barry Town 1
TNS 2
Final
Aberystwyth 0
TNS 1