Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Locomotive Tbilisi vs Guria

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3 Mikheil Meskhi Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Locomotive Tbilisi play Guria in the Liga 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Locomotive Tbilisi averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Guria averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. In past meetings, Locomotive Tbilisi won 2, Guria won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 5, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Locomotive Tbilisi and 2.00 for Guria. This points to a Guria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Locomotive Tbilisi
17%
Draws
47%
Guria
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Guria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Locomotive Tbilisi picked up more points recently compared to Guria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Locomotive Tbilisi Clean Sheet 10%
Guria Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Locomotive Tbilisi Guria
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.27 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 Liga 3
Locomotive Tbilisi vs Guria
1:4
Oct 29, 2016 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Guria vs Locomotive Tbilisi
1:0
Aug 27, 2016 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Locomotive Tbilisi vs Guria
2:1
Mar 6, 2016 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Guria vs Locomotive Tbilisi
0:0
Sep 11, 2015 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Locomotive Tbilisi vs Guria
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Locomotive Tbilisi Compare

Top Goalscorer Vibliani A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Guria Compare

Top Goalscorer Kapanadze T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kakhabrishvili K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Locomotive Tbilisi 34 / 100
Guria 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Locomotive Tbilisi Guria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guria or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Locomotive Tbilisi attacking → ← attacking Guria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Locomotive Tbilisi scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Guria let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Locomotive Tbilisi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guria lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 49
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 3.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Tbilisi 202515123040:839
2Guria15103242:1033
3Iberia 1999 21594225:931
4Gonio1593325:1130
5Orbi1582526:1526
6Merani Tbilisi1574421:1625
7Didube1574422:1825
8WIT Georgia1573521:1424
9Dinamo Tbilisi 21553718:1818
10Khobi1552820:2817
11Locomotive Tbilisi1544714:2116
12Margveti 20061551915:3016
13FC Gardabani1534814:3013
14Iveria Khashuri1516813:289
15Betlemi Keda1523109:339
16FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi1503128:443