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Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Hristo Bonev, Plovdiv
Lok. Plovdiv Logo

Lok. Plovdiv

2 - 0
FT
Arda Logo

Arda

Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Yusein S.
43'
Itu C.
51'
Chindris A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Lok. Plovdiv and Arda finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lok. Plovdiv.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Lok. Plovdiv
20%
Draws
29%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lok. Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arda come out ahead of Lok. Plovdiv on wins alone.
  • Lok. Plovdiv are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 68%
Arda Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Plovdiv Arda
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 4 5
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Aug 24, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
0:1
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Idriz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zwarts J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Arda Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Plovdiv 59 / 100
Arda 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Plovdiv Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lok. Plovdiv Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Lok. Plovdiv has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Arda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Plovdiv VS Arda
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Plovdiv

(Home)
02 Oct
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 0
Arda
20 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
13 Sept
Botev Plovdiv
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
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Arda

(Away)
02 Oct
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 0
Arda
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1
Arda
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
5 Lok. Plovdiv 36 14 13 9 36:41 55
6 Arda 36 15 9 12 42:34 54
7 Cherno More 36 14 12 10 40:34 54
8 Botev Plovdiv 36 13 7 16 49:45 46
Promotion - efbet League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)