Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Lok. Plovdiv Logo

Lok. Plovdiv

2 - 0
FT
Arda Logo

Arda

Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Yusein S.
43'
Itu C.
51'
Chindris A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Lok. Plovdiv and Arda finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lok. Plovdiv.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lok. Plovdiv
15%
Draws
46%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arda come out ahead of Lok. Plovdiv on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 20%
Arda Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Plovdiv Arda
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
1:1
Apr 22, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Idriz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zwarts J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Arda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Plovdiv 32 / 100
Arda 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Plovdiv Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lok. Plovdiv scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Arda conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Lok. Plovdiv went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Plovdiv VS Arda
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Plovdiv

(Home)
07 Aug
Levski Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
03 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
26 Jul
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
18 Jul
Ludogorets
1 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
08 Jul
Rilski Sportist
0 : 2
Lok. Plovdiv
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Arda

(Away)
08 Aug
Dunav Ruse
0 : 2
Arda
31 Jul
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 1
Arda
24 Jul
Arda
1 : 0
Slavia Sofia
18 Jul
Septemvri Sofia
1 : 1
Arda
10 Jul
Botev Vratsa
1 : 0
Arda
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
5 Lok. Plovdiv 36 14 13 9 36:41 55
6 Arda 36 15 9 12 42:34 54
7 Cherno More 36 14 12 10 40:34 54
8 Botev Plovdiv 36 13 7 16 49:45 46
Promotion - efbet League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)