Sport Picks
Lok. Tashkent vs Neftchi Fargona - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uzbekistan
Super League Lokomotiv Stadium, Tashkent 
Match Events
32'
32'
Ratinho
57'
57'
Sub
Mukhammadiev S. In: Yakhshiboev J.
Out: Mukhammadiev S.
58'
58'
Gofurov A.
AI Match Summary
Neftchi Fargona in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftchi Fargona.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Neftchi Fargona have won more games recently than Lok. Tashkent.
- Win probability leans Lok. Tashkent's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Neftchi Fargona here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lok. Tashkent Clean Sheet 16%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lok. Tashkent | Neftchi Fargona |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 21 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 10 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.26 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Super League
Lok. Tashkent vs Neftchi Fargona
0:1
Mar 20, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Lok. Tashkent
3:1
Nov 30, 2024 Super League
Lok. Tashkent vs Neftchi Fargona
2:3
Jun 27, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Lok. Tashkent
1:1
Oct 3, 2022 Super League
Lok. Tashkent vs Neftchi Fargona
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lok. Tashkent Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Marusic Z.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lok. Tashkent 41 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lok. Tashkent Neftchi Fargona
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Lok. Tashkent found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).
Lok. Tashkent went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Neftchi Fargona has conceded goals in 47% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Lok. Tashkent VS Neftchi Fargona
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Lok. Tashkent
(Home) 20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
15 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1 Lok. Tashkent
11 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
3 : 0 Mashal Muborak
04 Sept
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 1 Lok. Tashkent
26 Aug
Lok. Tashkent
4 : 1 Bunyodkor
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
11 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
3 : 0 Mashal Muborak
26 Aug
Lok. Tashkent
4 : 1 Bunyodkor
07 Aug
Lok. Tashkent
2 : 1 Din. Samarkand
27 Jul
Lok. Tashkent
3 : 1 Sogdiana
Page 1 of 3
Neftchi Fargona
(Away) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
13 Aug
Andijan
0 : 3 Neftchi Fargona
03 Aug
Din. Samarkand
0 : 0 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42:21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35:22 | 37 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35:31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 7 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29:31 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 23:30 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19:28 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22:30 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20:34 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23:39 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11:47 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
