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Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lok. Zagreb host Hajduk Split in the HNL. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Lok. Zagreb have averaged 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Hajduk Split's 2 scored and 1.07 conceded. Head-to-head, Lok. Zagreb have won 0 to Hajduk Split's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 31, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 1.94) point toward Hajduk Split. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Lok. Zagreb
15%
Draws
54%
Hajduk Split
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hajduk Split

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hajduk Split lately — more wins on the board than Lok. Zagreb.
  • Model gives Lok. Zagreb a 31% chance of winning this.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hajduk Split have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 10%
Hajduk Split Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Zagreb Hajduk Split
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 19
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.43 2
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 HNL
Hajduk Split vs Lok. Zagreb
2:0
May 16, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 HNL
Hajduk Split vs Lok. Zagreb
2:1
Dec 13, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 HNL
Hajduk Split vs Lok. Zagreb
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Zagreb 38 / 100
Hajduk Split 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Zagreb Hajduk Split

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lok. Zagreb Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lok. Zagreb scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Lok. Zagreb has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Hajduk Split has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Zagreb VS Hajduk Split
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Zagreb

(Home)
17 Oct
Lok. Zagreb
2 : 0
Istra 1961
11 Oct
Lok. Zagreb
0 : 1
Varazdin
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
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Hajduk Split

(Away)
18 Oct
Hajduk Split
1 : 0
Varazdin
15 Oct
Hajduk Split
2 : 1
Ajax
10 Oct
Hajduk Split
2 : 1
Din. Zagreb
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
13 Sept
Hajduk Split
1 : 0
Slaven Belupo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hajduk Split 10 7 1 2 19:9 22
2 Din. Zagreb 9 6 1 2 23:12 19
3 Varazdin 10 5 3 2 14:8 18
4 Osijek 10 5 2 3 19:15 17
5 Rijeka 9 5 2 2 16:12 17
6 Istra 1961 10 3 3 4 17:16 12
7 Lok. Zagreb 10 3 1 6 13:17 10
8 Slaven Belupo 10 3 1 6 12:22 10
9 Rudes 10 2 1 7 13:27 7
10 HNK Gorica 10 1 3 6 7:15 6
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)