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Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Adu Adjei D.
24'
Triantafyllou A.
35'
Vukovic D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this HNL matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Lok. Zagreb
15%
Draws
48%
Rijeka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rijeka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Rijeka have won more games recently than Lok. Zagreb.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 10%
Rijeka Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Zagreb Rijeka
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 12 18
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka
1:1
May 3, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka
0:3
Mar 1, 2026 HNL
Rijeka vs Lok. Zagreb
2:0
Nov 30, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 HNL
Rijeka vs Lok. Zagreb
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lok. Zagreb Compare

Top Goalscorer Vesovic M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Rijeka Compare

Top Goalscorer Dantas T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Zagreb 30 / 100
Rijeka 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Zagreb Rijeka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rijeka Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lok. Zagreb scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Lok. Zagreb has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Rijeka has conceded goals in 52% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Zagreb VS Rijeka
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Zagreb

(Home)
17 Oct
Lok. Zagreb
2 : 0
Istra 1961
11 Oct
Lok. Zagreb
0 : 1
Varazdin
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
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Rijeka

(Away)
16 Oct
Rudes
1 : 2
Rijeka
11 Oct
Slaven Belupo
4 : 1
Rijeka
26 Sept
Rijeka
0 : 1
Union Berlin
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
16 Sept
Vrbovec
0 : 6
Rijeka
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hajduk Split 10 7 1 2 19:9 22
2 Din. Zagreb 9 6 1 2 23:12 19
3 Varazdin 10 5 3 2 14:8 18
4 Osijek 10 5 2 3 19:15 17
5 Rijeka 9 5 2 2 16:12 17
6 Istra 1961 10 3 3 4 17:16 12
7 Lok. Zagreb 10 3 1 6 13:17 10
8 Slaven Belupo 10 3 1 6 12:22 10
9 Rudes 10 2 1 7 13:27 7
10 HNK Gorica 10 1 3 6 7:15 6
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)