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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Troyan

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-West
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lokomotiv Mezdra play Troyan in the Third League - North-West. Lokomotiv Mezdra are favorites here. Recently, Lokomotiv Mezdra averaged 2.48 goals scored and 1 conceded. Troyan averaged 0.91 goals scored and 2.55 conceded. In past meetings, Lokomotiv Mezdra won 2, Troyan won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Lokomotiv Mezdra and 1.38 for Troyan. This points to a Lokomotiv Mezdra double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Lokomotiv Mezdra
15%
Draws
16%
Troyan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lokomotiv Mezdra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Lokomotiv Mezdra picked up more points recently compared to Troyan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Lokomotiv Mezdra Clean Sheet 17%
Troyan Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lokomotiv Mezdra Troyan
Matches Played 29 22
Wins 21 5
Draws 2 1
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 2.48 0.91
Goals Conceded 1 2.55
Expected Goals (xG) 3.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Third League - North-West
Troyan vs Lokomotiv Mezdra
1:4
Oct 4, 2025 Third League - North-West
Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Troyan
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lokomotiv Mezdra 66 / 100
Troyan 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lokomotiv Mezdra Troyan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lokomotiv Mezdra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Lokomotiv Mezdra & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.2%
1.64
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lokomotiv Mezdra attacking → ← attacking Troyan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lokomotiv Mezdra scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Troyan let in goals in 82% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Lokomotiv Mezdra went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Troyan lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 16
3.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lokomotiv Mezdra22191262:2058
2Akademik Svishtov22173240:1154
3Kom Berkovitsa22136346:2245
4Bdin Vidin22141757:2643
5Partizan Cerven Brjag2286825:2530
6Pavlikeni22931029:2430
7Etar II2285932:3129
8Yantra Polski Trambesh22661037:4724
9OFK Levski22651132:3523
10Troyan22511620:5616
11Juventus Malchika22211914:724
12FC Lovech22601618:4318