Sport Picks

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Longford vs Kerry

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Bishopsgate
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Longford play Kerry in the Division 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Longford averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Kerry averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. In past meetings, Longford won 2, Kerry won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 26, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Longford and 1.50 for Kerry. This points to a Longford double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Longford
25%
Draws
31%
Kerry
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Longford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Longford picked up more points recently compared to Kerry.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Longford Clean Sheet 16%
Kerry Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Longford Kerry
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.24 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Longford
2:1
Apr 25, 2026 Division 1
Longford vs Kerry
1:0
Feb 27, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Longford
1:1
Aug 22, 2025 Division 1
Kerry vs Longford
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Division 1
Longford vs Kerry
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Longford Compare

Top Goalscorer Doran A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Kerry Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Longford 43 / 100
Kerry 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Longford Kerry

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Longford or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Longford attacking → ← attacking Kerry

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Longford scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Kerry let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Longford went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kerry lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 30
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City22173243:1154
2UC Dublin22113836:2136
3Bray2297640:3034
4Cobh Ramblers2294925:3031
5Longford2277823:2728
6Wexford2276925:3027
7Kerry2267922:2725
8Athlone22661019:2724
9Finn Harps22571020:3722
10Treaty United22481021:3420