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Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Talaveron D.

AI Match Summary

Lorca Deportiva in this Segunda RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lorca Deportiva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Lorca Deportiva
20%
Draws
51%
Castellonense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castellonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castellonense lately — more wins on the board than Lorca Deportiva.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 21%
Castellonense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lorca Deportiva Castellonense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 16
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 0.68 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.04 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lorca Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Talaveron D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26

Castellonense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lorca Deportiva 32 / 100
Castellonense 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lorca Deportiva Castellonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellonense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Lorca Deportiva stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Lorca Deportiva scored in 54% of their last 28 games.

Castellonense let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Lorca Deportiva VS Castellonense
0.38 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
13% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lorca Deportiva

(Home)
03 Oct
Castellon B
2 : 1
Lorca Deportiva
27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Castellonense
20 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 0
CF Intercity
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
Page 1 of 6

Castellonense

(Away)
11 Oct
Deportiva Minera
3 : 2
Castellonense
04 Oct
Castellonense
3 : 0
Real Murcia B
27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Castellonense
19 Sept
Castellonense
1 : 0
Ciudad Cieza
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Castellon B 6 4 0 2 13:7 12
2 La Nucia 5 4 0 1 9:3 12
3 Castellonense 6 4 0 2 10:6 12
4 Deportiva Minera 6 3 2 1 8:6 11
5 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
6 UCAM Murcia 5 3 0 2 12:6 9
7 CF Intercity 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
8 Yeclano 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
9 Ciudad Cieza 5 2 2 1 7:3 8
10 Ilicitano 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Orihuela 6 2 1 3 7:14 7
12 Mallorca B 6 1 3 2 4:6 6
13 Baleares 6 1 3 2 8:11 6
14 UD Poblense 6 2 0 4 5:8 6
15 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
16 Pena Deportiva 6 1 1 4 6:9 4
17 Valencia B 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
18 Real Murcia B 6 1 1 4 5:12 4
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)