Sport Picks

USA

MLS BMO Stadium

St. Louis City

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Los Angeles FC play St. Louis City in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Los Angeles FC averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. St. Louis City averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. In past meetings, Los Angeles FC won 3, St. Louis City won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Los Angeles FC and 1.88 for St. Louis City. This points to a Los Angeles FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Los Angeles FC

22%

Draws

31%

St. Louis City

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Los Angeles FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Los Angeles FC picked up more points recently compared to St. Louis City.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Los Angeles FC Clean Sheet 10%

St. Louis City Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Los Angeles FC	St. Louis City
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	17	11
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.87	1.52
Goals Conceded	1.1	1.55
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.13	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 MLS

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Mar 15, 2026 MLS

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City

Possession: 44% - 48% Cards: 0 - 0

2:0

Sep 28, 2025 MLS

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC

Possession: 48% - 50% Cards: 0 - 2

0:3

Apr 27, 2025 MLS

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 0 - 0

2:2

Oct 3, 2024 MLS

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City

Possession: 40% - 43% Cards: 1 - 0

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Los Angeles FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Choiniere M.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

St. Louis City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Los Angeles FC 44 / 100

St. Louis City 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Los Angeles FC St. Louis City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Los Angeles FC or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Los Angeles FC attacking → ← attacking St. Louis City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Los Angeles FC scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

St. Louis City let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Los Angeles FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

St. Louis City lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 40

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7