Sport Picks
Louisville City vs Austin FC
USA
US Open Cup Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY 
Match Events
11'
11'
Sub
Pereira D. In: Sabovic B.
Out: Pereira D.
11'
11'
Perez E.
26'
26'
Totsch S.
Assist: Davila T.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Louisville City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- Louisville City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Louisville City's way, sitting at 60%.
- Louisville City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Louisville City, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 68%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Louisville City | Austin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 14, 2026 US Open Cup
Louisville City vs Austin FC
2:1
Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
3:1
Feb 3, 2024 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
2:2
Feb 11, 2023 Club Friendly
Austin FC vs Louisville City
4:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer Totsch S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Showunmi T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Austin FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Fodrey C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Louisville City 68 / 100
Austin FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Louisville City Austin FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Louisville City found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Austin FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.
Louisville City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Louisville City VS Austin FC
1.88 Goals Scored 1.14
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.43
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 29%
Recent Form & Match History
Louisville City
(Home) 29 Jul
Louisville City
2 : 1 Birmingham Legion
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
Page 1 of 6
29 Jul
Louisville City
2 : 1 Birmingham Legion
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2 Brooklyn FC
Page 1 of 3
Austin FC
(Away) 26 Jul
Houston Dynamo
3 : 0 Austin FC
23 Jul
Austin FC
3 : 1 Seattle Sounders
08 Jul
Austin FC
4 : 0 Sporting Jax
03 Jul
Austin FC
0 : 1 Queretaro
23 May
St. Louis City
3 : 0 Austin FC
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Houston Dynamo
3 : 0 Austin FC
23 May
St. Louis City
3 : 0 Austin FC
14 May
San Diego FC
5 : 0 Austin FC
10 May
Minnesota United
2 : 2 Austin FC
23 Apr
San Jose Earthquakes
5 : 1 Austin FC
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
FC Naples3
Red Force0
South Georgia Tormenta-
America CFL Spurs-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orlando City-
New England Revolution-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Rhode Island4
Faialense0
Motown0
Hartford Athletic2
Chattanooga2
Kalonji1
Tennessee Tempo1
Chattanooga Red Wolves0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Atlanta United-
Charlotte FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charlotte Independence4
Ristozi FC1
Charleston2
Florida Badgers1
Richmond Kickers2
Northern Virginia0
West Chester United1
Loudoun United2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Columbus Crew-
DC United-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Asheville City3
Greenville Triumph1
Vistula1
One Knoxville3
Vermont Green1
Portland Hearts of Pine0
Westchester SC2
NY Renegades0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York City-
New York Red Bulls-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Steel City1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Carolina Core1
Virginia Dream2
Flint City2
Forward Madison0
Detroit City5
Michigan Rangers1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chicago Fire-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
San Antonio FC6
New Stars0
Little Rock Rangers2
FC Tulsa4
Lexington9
Flower City Union0
Louisville City2
Southern Indiana0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Austin FC-
Houston Dynamo-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New Mexico3
Cruizers FC2
Laredo Heat0
El Paso Locomotive2
Colorado Springs3
Azteca0
Ventura1
Spokane Velocity2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Sporting Kansas City-
Colorado Rapids-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Indy Eleven3
Menace0
BOHFS St. Louis0
Union Omaha8
AV Alta FC0
Valley 559 FC1
Sacramento Republic2
El Farolito0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Minnesota United-
San Jose Earthquakes-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orange County SC3
Laguna United0
Phoenix Rising4
San Ramon0
1/32-finals
FC Naples3
America CFL Spurs0
TBD-
Orlando City-
New England Revolution-
TBD-
Rhode Island2
Hartford Athletic0
Chattanooga1
Tennessee Tempo0
TBD-
Atlanta United-
Charlotte FC-
TBD-
Charlotte Independence3
Charleston2
Richmond Kickers1
Loudoun United0
TBD-
Columbus Crew-
DC United-
TBD-
Asheville City1
One Knoxville2
Vermont Green0
Westchester SC1
TBD-
New York City-
New York Red Bulls-
TBD-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Virginia Dream0
Flint City0
Detroit City1
TBD-
Chicago Fire-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
San Antonio FC0
FC Tulsa1
Lexington0
Louisville City2
TBD-
Austin FC-
Houston Dynamo-
TBD-
New Mexico0
El Paso Locomotive4
Colorado Springs2
Spokane Velocity1
TBD-
Sporting Kansas City-
Colorado Rapids-
TBD-
Indy Eleven1
Union Omaha2
Valley 559 FC0
Sacramento Republic4
TBD-
Minnesota United-
San Jose Earthquakes-
TBD-
Orange County SC1
Phoenix Rising2
1/16-finals
FC Naples0
Orlando City1
New England Revolution2
Rhode Island1
Chattanooga1
Atlanta United3
Charlotte FC6
Charlotte Independence0
Richmond Kickers0
Columbus Crew3
DC United3
One Knoxville4
Westchester SC2
New York City5
New York Red Bulls3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
Detroit City1
Chicago Fire2
St. Louis City4
FC Tulsa0
Louisville City2
Austin FC1
Houston Dynamo4
El Paso Locomotive1
Colorado Springs3
Sporting Kansas City0
Colorado Rapids1
Union Omaha0
Sacramento Republic0
Minnesota United1
San Jose Earthquakes2
Phoenix Rising0
1/8-finals
Orlando City4
New England Revolution3
Atlanta United2
Charlotte FC0
Columbus Crew4
One Knoxville1
New York City3
New York Red Bulls1
Chicago Fire1
St. Louis City2
Louisville City1
Houston Dynamo2
Colorado Springs2
Colorado Rapids3
Minnesota United2
San Jose Earthquakes4
Quarter-finals
Orlando City4
Atlanta United1
Columbus Crew1
New York City0
St. Louis City3
Houston Dynamo2
Colorado Rapids2
San Jose Earthquakes0
Semi-finals
Orlando City-
Columbus Crew-
St. Louis City-
Colorado Rapids-
Final
TBD-
TBD-
