Sport Picks
Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY 
Match Events
6'
6'
Lambert K.
Assist: McFadden A.
17'
17'
Duncan Z.
32'
32'
Vassell P.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Louisville City and Birmingham Legion finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louisville City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Louisville City come out ahead of Birmingham Legion on wins alone.
- Model gives Louisville City a 47% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 16%
Birmingham Legion Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Louisville City | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.6 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 29, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion
2:1
Jun 4, 2026 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion
4:2
Mar 16, 2025 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City
1:1
Jun 29, 2024 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City
1:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer Lambert K.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Birmingham Legion Compare
Top Goalscorer Shashoua S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Louisville City 57 / 100
Birmingham Legion 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Louisville City Birmingham Legion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Louisville City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Louisville City found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
Birmingham Legion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Louisville City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Louisville City VS Birmingham Legion
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Louisville City
(Home) 10 Oct
Charleston
0 : 2 Louisville City
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1 Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2 Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1 Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2 El Paso Locomotive
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1 Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2 El Paso Locomotive
30 Aug
Louisville City
0 : 0 Detroit City
09 Aug
Louisville City
1 : 1 San Antonio FC
29 Jul
Louisville City
2 : 1 Birmingham Legion
Page 1 of 3
Birmingham Legion
(Away) 03 Oct
Detroit City
1 : 0 Birmingham Legion
23 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 0 Brooklyn FC
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
12 Sept
Birmingham Legion
2 : 2 Charleston
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Detroit City
1 : 0 Birmingham Legion
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Indy Eleven
2 : 2 Birmingham Legion
29 Aug
Hartford Athletic
3 : 2 Birmingham Legion
16 Aug
Colorado Springs
3 : 2 Birmingham Legion
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
