Sport Picks
Louisville City vs Miami FC
USA
USL Championship Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY 
Match Events
8'
8'
McFadden A.
Assist: Donovan C.
28'
28'
Serrano R.
Assist: Davila T.
30'
30'
Donovan C.
Assist: Wilson J.
AI Match Summary
Louisville City in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Louisville City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Louisville City lately — more wins on the board than Miami FC.
- Win probability leans Louisville City's way, sitting at 36%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Louisville City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 20%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Louisville City | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 11 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 23, 2026 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Louisville City
4:3
Mar 14, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
4:1
Oct 11, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Louisville City
2:4
Oct 2, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer McFadden A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Serrano R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Miami FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Milesi A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Louisville City 36 / 100
Miami FC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Louisville City Miami FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Louisville City scored in 90% of their last 30 games.
These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Miami FC conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.
Louisville City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Louisville City VS Miami FC
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Louisville City
(Home) 29 Jul
Louisville City
2 : 1 Birmingham Legion
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
Page 1 of 6
29 Jul
Louisville City
2 : 1 Birmingham Legion
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2 Brooklyn FC
Page 1 of 4
Miami FC
(Away) 25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
23 Jul
Colorado Springs
2 : 0 Miami FC
15 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 0 Indy Eleven
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5 Miami FC
05 Jul
Miami FC
1 : 1 Birmingham Legion
Page 1 of 6
23 Jul
Colorado Springs
2 : 0 Miami FC
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5 Miami FC
14 Jun
Oakland Roots
0 : 0 Miami FC
30 May
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2 : 0 Miami FC
21 May
Detroit City
2 : 1 Miami FC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 28:15 | 35 |
| 2 | Charleston | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32:24 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23:15 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 28:26 | 27 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 19:20 | 23 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | 21 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 22:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 12:14 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 16 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 19:29 | 15 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 17:21 | 14 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:27 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23:46 | 8 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27:19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22:19 | 28 |
| 3 | FC Tulsa | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19:16 | 26 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 5 | New Mexico | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:15 | 24 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25:27 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17:27 | 15 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
