Sport Picks
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
USA
USL Championship Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY 
Match Events
28'
28'
Duncan Z.
43'
43'
Cruz S.
46'
46'
Sub
Wyke L. In: Conway E.
Out: Wyke L.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Louisville City and Tampa Bay finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tampa Bay's 1.75 goals per match outpaces what Louisville City have produced (1.5).
- Win probability leans Louisville City's way, sitting at 42%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 16%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Louisville City | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 19 |
| Draws | 3 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 30, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
0:2
Jun 8, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
1:2
Oct 12, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
2:1
Jun 15, 2024 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Louisville City Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Myers M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Schneider M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Louisville City 41 / 100
Tampa Bay 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Louisville City Tampa Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Louisville City's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Recent resilience: Louisville City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Tampa Bay has conceded goals in 47% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Louisville City VS Tampa Bay
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Louisville City
(Home) 26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
20 Jun
Detroit City
0 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2 Brooklyn FC
30 May
Louisville City
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
Tampa Bay
(Away) 25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
18 Jul
Loudoun United
1 : 1 Tampa Bay
11 Jul
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 FC Naples
04 Jul
Tampa Bay
1 : 4 Lexington
20 Jun
Brooklyn FC
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
18 Jul
Loudoun United
1 : 1 Tampa Bay
20 Jun
Brooklyn FC
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
06 Jun
Sporting Jax
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
30 May
Louisville City
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 28:15 | 35 |
| 2 | Charleston | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32:24 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23:15 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | 21 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 22:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 12:14 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 16 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 19:29 | 15 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:27 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23:46 | 8 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27:19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22:19 | 28 |
| 3 | Colorado Springs | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:15 | 24 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Tulsa | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25:27 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17:27 | 15 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
