Sport Picks

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Louletano vs Fabril do Barreiro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Ferreira L.
21' Event
Souza E.
49' Event
Souza E.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Louletano and Fabril do Barreiro finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louletano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Louletano
30%
Draws
30%
Fabril do Barreiro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Fabril do Barreiro haven't matched Louletano's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Louletano Clean Sheet 24%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Fabril do Barreiro
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 18 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.52 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Louletano
2:1
Jan 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Fabril do Barreiro
4:0
Apr 6, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Louletano
1:1
Dec 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:2
Feb 2, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Fabril do Barreiro
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Souza E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Fabril do Barreiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 37 / 100
Fabril do Barreiro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Fabril do Barreiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louletano found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (33 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Fabril do Barreiro let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Louletano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS -
2.25 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
Page 1 of 7

Fabril do Barreiro

(Away)
13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1
Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2
Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4
Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)