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LPS vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Suomen Cup 2025 Saari Areena, Laajasalo
LPS Logo

LPS

0 - 1
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Okereke E.
43'
Lahikainen J.
46'
Sub
Nunez W. In: Toivonen E.
Out: Nunez W.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mariehamn in this Suomen Cup 2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
LPS
15%
Draws
46%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mariehamn lately — more wins on the board than LPS.
  • Win probability leans Mariehamn's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Mariehamn arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Mariehamn, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mariehamn have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
LPS Clean Sheet 20%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LPS Mariehamn
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 8
Draws 2 6
Losses 25 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1.17
Goals Conceded 3.67 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2025 Suomen Cup
LPS vs Mariehamn
0:1
May 9, 2024 Suomen Cup
LPS vs Mariehamn
0:5
Apr 10, 2011 Suomen Cup
LPS vs Mariehamn
0:8

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

LPS Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Dahlgren H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LPS 24 / 100
Mariehamn 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LPS Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.67 goals.

Attacking prowess: LPS scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

LPS went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mariehamn
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

LPS

(Home)
06 May
LPS
0 : 1
Mariehamn
15 Apr
LPS
2 : 1
Keski-Uusimaa
09 May
LPS
0 : 5
Mariehamn
24 Apr
LPS
4 : 0
EPS 2
26 Apr
LPS
1 : 3
JaPS
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
15 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
SJK
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
25 Jul
Mariehamn
1 : 1
AC Oulu
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Gilla FC 2
Valtti 1
KelA Akatemia 0
Klubi 04 10
EsPa 2 0
EsPa 6
Malmin Ponnistajat 0
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 4
LPS 2
Keski-Uusimaa 1
GrIFK 1
Mariehamn 2
MuSa 3
Ilves 2 5
Tampere Utd 0
TPS 3
PoPo 2
Edustus IPS 0
KuPS Akatemia 4
JJK Jyvaskyla 3
Lahden Reipas 2
Lahti 1
Soho 0
Mikkelin 3
HJK -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
JaPS Akatemia 0
Kiffen 5
FC Futura 0
JaPS 7
Santa Claus 1
JS Hercules 4
PonPa 1
AC Oulu 3
VJS 2
EPS 0
Toukolan Teras 2
NJS 3
NuPS 0
HJS 2
Julkis- ja yksityisalojen 1
SalPa 2
ToBK 1
Poxyt 2
TiPS 0
PK-35 6
SJK -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
EPS 2 1
Atlantis 4
HPS 0
KaPa 4
VPV 0
KPV Kokkola 10
JBK 0
RoPS Rovaniemi 1
MuurY 0
Jippo 6
Lahti/69 1
KTP 5
Huima / Urho 4
LAUTP 0
ToU 0
Haka 8
KeuPa 1
Union Plaani 2
Vaajakoski 4
PEPO 2
Toolon Taisto 1
JaPS 2 2
Gnistan/M35 0
Gnistan 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ilves -
Polin Pallo 2
RiPS 5
LTU 0
Jazz Pori 3
OTP 1
VPS 2 8
Lapuan Virkia Lapua 2
GBK Kokkola 5
FC Kangasala 0
SalPa 2 2
Tampere Utd 3 0
TPV 7
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
KuPS -
NiemU 1
MyPa 0
Kyparamaki 0
HAPK 2
FC Kiisto Vaasa 0
OLS Oulu 2
SJK U21 0
SJK Akatemia 3
Honka 3 1
EBK 2
FC Kontu 0
Honka 9
Tuisku 0
Ekenas IF 6
Lasten 0
Inter Turku 4
VIFK 2
Jaro 3
HauPa 4
Kajaanin Haka 1
VJS 2 1
PuiU Helsinki 3
HIFK 3
Atlantis 2 2
Abo IFK 2
NoPS 0
MaPS 1
Pallo-Iirot 2
Harma 1
Tampere Utd 2 3
TP-T 0
VPS 5
1/32-finals
Gilla FC 0
Klubi 04 6
EsPa 1
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 0
LPS 0
Mariehamn 1
Ilves 2 1
TPS 3
PoPo 2
KuPS Akatemia 3
Lahden Reipas 0
Mikkelin 1
HJK -
TBD -
Kiffen 0
JaPS 6
JS Hercules 1
AC Oulu 5
VJS 2
NJS 0
HJS 2
SalPa 1
Poxyt 0
PK-35 3
SJK -
TBD -
Atlantis 2
KaPa 1
KPV Kokkola 2
RoPS Rovaniemi 1
Jippo 1
KTP 2
Huima / Urho 0
Haka 4
Union Plaani 2
Vaajakoski 0
JaPS 2 0
Gnistan 3
TBD -
Ilves -
RiPS 0
Jazz Pori 2
VPS 2 0
GBK Kokkola 1
SalPa 2 0
TPV 4
TBD -
KuPS -
NiemU 1
HAPK 2
OLS Oulu 4
SJK Akatemia 3
EBK 1
Honka 3
Ekenas IF 2
Inter Turku 1
Jaro 7
HauPa 0
PuiU Helsinki 0
HIFK 2
Abo IFK 4
Pallo-Iirot 6
Tampere Utd 2 1
VPS 2
1/16-finals
Klubi 04 8
EsPa 2
Mariehamn 3
TPS 2
KuPS Akatemia 1
Mikkelin 4
HJK 2
JaPS 1
AC Oulu 2
VJS 1
HJS 0
PK-35 1
SJK 3
Atlantis 2
KPV Kokkola 2
KTP 0
Haka 6
Union Plaani 0
Gnistan 3
Ilves 0
Jazz Pori 3
GBK Kokkola 2
TPV 0
KuPS 2
HAPK 1
OLS Oulu 4
Honka 0
Ekenas IF 1
Jaro 5
HIFK 0
Pallo-Iirot 1
VPS 5
1/8-finals
Klubi 04 4
Mariehamn 3
Mikkelin 0
HJK 1
AC Oulu 2
PK-35 1
SJK 7
KPV Kokkola 0
Haka 3
Gnistan 2
Jazz Pori 2
KuPS 6
OLS Oulu 0
Ekenas IF 1
Jaro 3
VPS 2
Quarter-finals
Klubi 04 0
HJK 4
AC Oulu 2
SJK 0
Haka 1
KuPS 2
Ekenas IF 2
Jaro 4
Semi-finals
HJK 1
AC Oulu 0
KuPS 2
Jaro 0
Final
HJK 1
KuPS 0