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Luarca vs Lealtad

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Esono N.

AI Match Summary

Luarca in this Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Luarca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Luarca
20%
Draws
40%
Lealtad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Luarca haven't matched Lealtad's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Lealtad a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lealtad have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Luarca Clean Sheet 22%
Lealtad Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luarca Lealtad
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 6 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 18 19
Goals Scored 1.13 1.19
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Lealtad vs Luarca
4:0
Jan 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Luarca vs Lealtad
1:0
Feb 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Luarca vs Lealtad
0:1
Oct 2, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Lealtad vs Luarca
1:0
Apr 17, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Luarca vs Lealtad
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luarca Compare

Top Goalscorer Esono N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Lealtad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luarca 10 / 100
Lealtad 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luarca Lealtad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lealtad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luarca scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Lealtad has conceded goals in 73% of their last 37 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Lealtad lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lealtad
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Luarca

(Home)
12 May
Lealtad
4 : 0
Luarca
05 May
Luarca
2 : 3
Gijon Industrial
01 May
Lenense
3 : 0
Luarca
27 Apr
Luarca
1 : 2
Basico Urraca
21 Apr
Tuilla
1 : 1
Luarca
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Lealtad

(Away)
07 Aug
Llanera
1 : 0
Lealtad
03 May
Salamanca CF UDS
2 : 1
Lealtad
26 Apr
Lealtad
2 : 2
Coruxo FC
19 Apr
UD Ourense
3 : 1
Lealtad
12 Apr
Lealtad
2 : 3
Valladolid Promesas
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llanera 34 28 3 3 105:25 87
2 Gijon B 34 21 8 5 61:15 71
3 Lealtad 34 19 8 7 53:25 65
4 Union Club Ceares 34 19 8 7 52:30 65
5 L Entregu CF 34 18 9 7 51:32 63
6 Praviano 34 13 16 5 34:26 55
7 Tuilla 34 13 13 8 56:43 52
8 Basico Urraca 34 11 11 12 33:35 44
9 Caudal Deportivo 34 9 16 9 35:35 43
10 CD Colunga 34 11 8 15 38:44 41
11 Lenense 34 10 8 16 32:45 38
12 Aviles Stadium 34 8 12 14 30:43 36
13 Real Titanico 34 9 9 16 43:63 36
14 Condal 34 10 6 18 28:49 36
15 Llanes 34 9 8 17 36:54 35
16 Gijon Industrial 34 7 9 18 36:67 30
17 Luarca 34 6 7 21 38:75 25
18 Barcia 34 2 7 25 26:81 13
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2023/2024 (Play Offs)