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Lucchese vs Ghiviborgo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E Porta Elisa, Lucca
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lucchese host Ghiviborgo in the Serie D - Group E. This has Lucchese written all over it on paper. Ghiviborgo have shipped 1.66 goals a game lately, while Lucchese have conceded 1.69 and scored 1.72. Past meetings favor Lucchese slightly — 1-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 26, 2020, ending 2:0. The numbers (2.13 xG vs 1.13) point toward Lucchese. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lucchese
30%
Draws
12%
Ghiviborgo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lucchese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lucchese lately — more wins on the board than Ghiviborgo.
  • Win probability leans Lucchese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 20%
Ghiviborgo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lucchese Ghiviborgo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.72 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2020 Serie D - Group A
Lucchese vs Ghiviborgo
2:0
Sep 22, 2019 Serie D - Group A
Ghiviborgo vs Lucchese
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lucchese 85 / 100
Ghiviborgo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lucchese Ghiviborgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lucchese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lucchese's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ghiviborgo has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Lucchese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lucchese VS Ghiviborgo
2.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lucchese

(Home)
18 Oct
Sasso Marconi
2 : 0
Lucchese
11 Oct
Lucchese
2 : 2
Ternana
07 Oct
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 2
Lucchese
04 Oct
Grassina
3 : 6
Lucchese
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
Page 1 of 6

Ghiviborgo

(Away)
18 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3
Montevarchi
11 Oct
Scandicci
3 : 3
Ghiviborgo
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1
Tau
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Mezzolara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Prato 8 5 3 0 12:5 18
2 Follonica Gavorrano 8 4 4 0 11:5 16
3 Seravezza Pozzi 8 4 2 2 15:5 14
4 Lucchese 8 4 2 2 18:15 14
5 Siena 8 4 1 3 15:10 13
6 Tau 8 4 1 3 11:14 13
7 Ternana 8 3 3 2 13:8 12
8 Scandicci 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
9 Terranuova Traiana 8 3 3 2 13:10 12
10 Flaminia 8 3 3 2 10:11 12
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 8 3 2 3 9:10 11
12 Montevarchi 8 3 1 4 12:12 10
13 Mezzolara 8 1 6 1 7:9 9
14 Rondinella 8 2 3 3 6:10 9
15 Sasso Marconi 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
16 Grassina 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 SCD Progresso 8 1 0 7 4:17 3
18 Ghiviborgo 8 0 2 6 6:16 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)