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Lugano II vs Bavois - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Promotion League
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Jaquenoud L.
19' Event
Raffa C.
26' Event
Davis A.

AI Match Summary

The Promotion League game between Lugano II and Bavois finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugano II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Lugano II
15%
Draws
42%
Bavois
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugano II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bavois come out ahead of Lugano II on wins alone.
  • Lugano II are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lugano II Clean Sheet 18%
Bavois Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugano II Bavois
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 10
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.36 1.45
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Promotion League
Lugano II vs Bavois
3:2
Apr 25, 2026 Promotion League
Bavois vs Lugano II
4:1
Oct 19, 2025 Promotion League
Lugano II vs Bavois
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Promotion League
Lugano II vs Bavois
0:0
Oct 12, 2024 Promotion League
Bavois vs Lugano II
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugano II Compare

Top Goalscorer Raffa C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Davis A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Bavois Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaquenoud L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hautier J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugano II 67 / 100
Bavois 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugano II Bavois

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano II Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Lugano II scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Bavois's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Bavois's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugano II VS Bavois
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugano II

(Home)
03 Oct
Paradiso
1 : 0
Lugano II
26 Sept
Lugano II
0 : 1
Cham
19 Sept
Schaffhausen
2 : 1
Lugano II
13 Sept
Lugano II
3 : 0
Basel II
05 Sept
Amical Saint-Prex
1 : 0
Lugano II
Page 1 of 6

Bavois

(Away)
03 Oct
Breitenrain
1 : 0
Bavois
26 Sept
Biel
2 : 0
Bavois
20 Sept
Bavois
0 : 1
Luzern II
12 Sept
Young Boys II
2 : 1
Bavois
05 Sept
Bavois
3 : 0
Bulle
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Biel 10 8 1 1 23:10 25
2 Schaffhausen 10 7 1 2 21:13 22
3 Bulle 10 6 2 2 22:14 20
4 Paradiso 10 6 1 3 20:9 19
5 Cham 10 6 1 3 16:13 19
6 Grand-Saconnex 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
7 Young Fellows Juventus 10 5 1 4 14:14 16
8 Basel II 10 5 0 5 19:19 15
9 Zurich II 10 4 2 4 18:18 14
10 Breitenrain 10 4 2 4 13:15 14
11 Amical Saint-Prex 10 4 1 5 14:22 13
12 FC Kreuzlingen 10 3 3 4 13:13 12
13 Bruhl SG 10 3 2 5 12:15 11
14 Young Boys II 10 3 2 5 20:27 11
15 Lugano II 10 3 0 7 15:22 9
16 Bavois 10 2 2 6 10:12 8
17 Luzern II 10 2 1 7 15:19 7
18 Bellinzona 10 1 2 7 7:22 5
Promotion - Challenge League 2027/2028 (Main)