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Stadium Background

Lugano vs Basel

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League 2025/2026 Stadio di Cornaredo, Lugano
Lugano Logo

Lugano

4 - 0
FT
Basel Logo

Basel

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Behrens K.
Assist: Alioski E.
27'
Ruegg K.
30'
Sub
Duranville J. In: Soticek M.
Out: Duranville J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lugano in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Lugano
20%
Draws
28%
Basel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Basel haven't matched Lugano's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lugano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Lugano Clean Sheet 20%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugano Basel
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 4
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 1.79 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.89 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
4:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
0:1
Aug 10, 2025 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
3:1
May 10, 2025 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugano Compare

Top Goalscorer Behrens K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Steffen R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Basel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugano 85 / 100
Basel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugano Basel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugano's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Basel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Lugano went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lugano VS Basel
2.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugano

(Home)
09 Aug
Lugano
5 : 0
Zurich
06 Aug
Lugano
2 : 0
NSI Runavik
02 Aug
Grasshoppers
1 : 4
Lugano
29 Jul
Dukagjini
1 : 5
Lugano
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
Page 1 of 6

Basel

(Away)
09 Aug
Basel
4 : 2
Thun
01 Aug
Basel
0 : 1
Lausanne
25 Jul
Servette
0 : 1
Basel
18 Jul
Basel
0 : 0
Juventus
11 Jul
Basel
2 : 2
Winterthur
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thun 38 24 3 11 80:52 75
2 St. Gallen 38 20 10 8 72:47 70
3 Lugano 38 19 10 9 59:42 67
4 Sion 38 16 15 7 63:40 63
5 Basel 38 16 8 14 55:58 56
6 Young Boys 38 15 10 13 80:69 55
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)