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Lugo B vs Arosa SC

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Remeseiro M.
36' Event
Dean M.
90' Event
Rey A.

AI Match Summary

Arosa SC in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arosa SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lugo B
35%
Draws
25%
Arosa SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lugo B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Arosa SC have won more games recently than Lugo B.
  • Win probability leans Lugo B's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Lugo B Clean Sheet 68%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo B Arosa SC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.2 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.03
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Arosa SC
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Lugo B
2:2
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Arosa SC
2:3
Oct 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Lugo B
3:0
Feb 25, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Lugo B
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo B Compare

Top Goalscorer Dean M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Arosa SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Remeseiro M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rey A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.94
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo B 95 / 100
Arosa SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo B Arosa SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo B scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Arosa SC conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Lugo B has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lugo B VS Arosa SC
1.57 Goals Scored 1.5
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.88
43% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 25%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo B

(Home)
10 May
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 1
Lugo B
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Alondras
0 : 4
Lugo B
19 Apr
Viveiro
0 : 0
Lugo B
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
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Arosa SC

(Away)
27 Sept
Arosa SC
2 : 5
Alaves B
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Arosa SC
0 : 4
Gernika Club
06 Sept
Amorebieta
2 : 2
Arosa SC
01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1
Pontevedra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)