Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lugo vs Leonesa

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Samanes S.
46'
Sub
Martinez M. In: Piedra I.
Out: Martinez M.
50'
Carbonell A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Lugo and Leonesa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Lugo
35%
Draws
21%
Leonesa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lugo come out ahead of Leonesa on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lugo's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Leonesa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%
Leonesa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo Leonesa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 3
Draws 8 10
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.17 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Lugo vs Leonesa
1:0
Jan 19, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Leonesa
1:4
Aug 24, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Leonesa vs Lugo
2:0
Mar 31, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Leonesa vs Lugo
2:0
Nov 12, 2023 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Leonesa
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Samanes S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Leonesa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 77 / 100
Leonesa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo Leonesa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leonesa let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Lugo remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Lugo scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Lugo VS Leonesa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo

(Home)
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
30 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 3
Lugo
21 Aug
Lugo
1 : 0
Ourense CF
15 Aug
Lugo
2 : 1
Coruxo FC
12 Aug
Bergantinos
0 : 3
Lugo
Page 1 of 6

Leonesa

(Away)
30 Aug
Barakaldo
0 : 0
Leonesa
21 Aug
Atletico Astorga
1 : 1
Leonesa
15 Aug
Leonesa
5 : 0
Salamanca CF UDS
08 Aug
Burgos CF
1 : 0
Leonesa
05 Aug
Leonesa
1 : 1
Real Aviles
Page 1 of 6