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Lugo vs Zamora

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Jose Amo
28'
Marquez E.
32'
Perera A.

AI Match Summary

Zamora in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Zamora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Lugo
30%
Draws
27%
Zamora
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Zamora average 1.21 goals a game right now, well clear of Lugo's 1.14.
  • Lugo are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%
Zamora Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo Zamora
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Zamora
1:3
Sep 14, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Zamora vs Lugo
1:0
May 17, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Zamora
2:0
Nov 22, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Zamora vs Lugo
2:0
Mar 28, 2010 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Zamora
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Zamora Compare

Top Goalscorer Losada M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 68 / 100
Zamora 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo Zamora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Lugo's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Zamora conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lugo VS Zamora
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo

(Home)
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
30 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 3
Lugo
21 Aug
Lugo
1 : 0
Ourense CF
15 Aug
Lugo
2 : 1
Coruxo FC
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Zamora

(Away)
13 Sept
Arenas Getxo
1 : 2
Zamora
06 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
UD Logrones
29 Aug
Zamora
1 : 1
Ath Bilbao B
20 Aug
Real Madrid B
0 : 1
Zamora
04 Aug
San Sebastian Reyes
0 : 0
Zamora
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tenerife 38 22 10 6 62:24 76
2 Celta Vigo B 38 18 11 9 61:48 65
3 Zamora 38 17 10 11 53:42 61
4 Ponferradina 38 17 9 12 43:33 60
5 Real Madrid B 38 16 10 12 61:52 58
6 Pontevedra 38 14 16 8 49:31 58
7 Barakaldo 38 15 13 10 51:38 58
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 15 11 12 53:49 56
9 Lugo 38 13 14 11 36:40 53
10 AD Merida 38 14 10 14 47:53 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 15 7 16 46:55 52
12 Racing Club Ferrol 38 13 10 15 41:47 49
13 Ath Bilbao B 38 13 10 15 38:46 49
14 Real Aviles 38 11 11 16 55:67 44
15 Cacereno 38 10 14 14 42:49 44
16 CF Talavera 38 11 10 17 38:47 43
17 Ourense CF 38 10 13 15 44:47 43
18 Guadalajara 38 10 11 17 44:58 41
19 Osasuna B 38 10 10 18 28:42 40
20 Arenteiro 38 6 10 22 29:53 28
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)