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Lusitano FCV vs Sanjoanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lusitano FCV play Sanjoanense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lusitano FCV averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Sanjoanense averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Lusitano FCV won 0, Sanjoanense won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 11, 2022 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.73 for Lusitano FCV and 0.86 for Sanjoanense. This points to a Sanjoanense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Lusitano FCV
26%
Draws
43%
Sanjoanense
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Sanjoanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Lusitano FCV picked up more points recently compared to Sanjoanense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.73 vs 0.86 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Lusitano FCV Clean Sheet 25%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano FCV Sanjoanense
Matches Played 28 38
Wins 7 8
Draws 4 15
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.82 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.53

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Lusitano FCV vs Sanjoanense
0:3
Feb 28, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Sanjoanense vs Lusitano FCV
3:0
Dec 13, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lusitano FCV vs Sanjoanense
0:0
Jan 26, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Lusitano FCV vs Sanjoanense
0:1
Aug 25, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Sanjoanense vs Lusitano FCV
3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano FCV 33 / 100
Sanjoanense 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano FCV Sanjoanense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sanjoanense or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lusitano FCV attacking → ← attacking Sanjoanense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano FCV scored in 46% of their last 28 games.

Sanjoanense let in goals in 76% of their last 38 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Lusitano FCV went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Sanjoanense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 39
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Anadia22135439:1544
2Canelas 201022125528:1341
3Lusitania FC22116538:2639
4Sao Joao de Ver22108430:1438
5Sanjoanense22812226:1336
6Castro Daire22105723:2435
7Valadares Gaia FC22103936:2733
8SC Espinho2294933:2231
9Beira Mar2294930:2331
10Agueda22451317:2817
11Lusitano FCV22441417:3416
12Vila Cortez2211208:864