Sport Picks

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Lusitano GC vs Covilha

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo Estrela, Evora
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Lopes D.
59'
Sub
Aguas M. In: Pereira F.
Out: Aguas M.
59'
Sub
Tipote L. In: Almara F.
Out: Tipote L.

AI Match Summary

Lusitano GC in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lusitano GC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Lusitano GC
35%
Draws
19%
Covilha
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lusitano GC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Lusitano GC have won more games recently than Covilha.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lusitano GC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano GC Covilha
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.97 0.83
Goals Conceded 1 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Lusitano GC
1:3
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Covilha vs Lusitano GC
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusitano GC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopes D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Covilha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano GC 41 / 100
Covilha 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano GC Covilha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusitano GC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano GC found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Covilha's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Lusitano GC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lusitano GC VS Covilha
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitano GC

(Home)
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
16 Aug
Caldas SC
0 : 0
Lusitano GC
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Covilha

(Away)
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1
Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
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