Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lusitano GC vs Fabril do Barreiro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Davou S.
24'
Ribeiro R.
50' Event
Soares M.

AI Match Summary

Lusitano GC in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lusitano GC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lusitano GC
44%
Draws
20%
Fabril do Barreiro
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lusitano GC lately — more wins on the board than Fabril do Barreiro.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 22%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano GC Fabril do Barreiro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.75 0
Goals Conceded 1.13 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lusitano GC vs Fabril do Barreiro
4:0
Oct 27, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Lusitano GC
1:1
Feb 4, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lusitano GC vs Fabril do Barreiro
0:0
Oct 1, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Lusitano GC
0:1
Jan 15, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Lusitano GC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusitano GC Compare

Top Goalscorer Soares M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Davou S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Fabril do Barreiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano GC 37 / 100
Fabril do Barreiro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano GC Fabril do Barreiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano GC found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Fabril do Barreiro conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Lusitano GC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lusitano GC VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitano GC

(Home)
15 Jul
Benfica B
1 : 1
Lusitano GC
02 May
Lusitano GC
0 : 1
Atletico CP
25 Apr
Amora
1 : 2
Lusitano GC
18 Apr
Lusitano GC
1 : 0
Covilha
11 Apr
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
1º Dezembro
Page 1 of 7

Fabril do Barreiro

(Away)
13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1
Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2
Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4
Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lusitano GC26184457:1458
2Amora26176341:1957
3Sintrense26164639:2652
4Moncarapachense26156539:1951
5Louletano26155644:2050
6Serpa26136742:2745
7Estrela da Amadora B26791035:3130
8Lagoa26791026:3530
9Industria26851335:4229
10Fabril do Barreiro26691121:3227
11Moura AC26751427:5026
12Operario26651522:4323
13FC Barreirense26571431:4722
14Estrela Vendas Novas26122312:665
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)