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Lusitano GC vs Oliveirense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Campo Estrela, Evora
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lusitano GC host Oliveirense in the Liga 3. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Oliveirense have shipped 1.59 goals a game lately, while Lusitano GC have conceded 1.07 and scored 0.9. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.38, favoring Lusitano GC. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Lusitano GC
15%
Draws
59%
Oliveirense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oliveirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lusitano GC lately — more wins on the board than Oliveirense.
  • Oliveirense are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 17%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano GC Oliveirense
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano GC 20 / 100
Oliveirense 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano GC Oliveirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Oliveirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano GC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Oliveirense conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Lusitano GC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Oliveirense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lusitano GC VS Oliveirense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitano GC

(Home)
09 Oct
Santarem
3 : 0
Lusitano GC
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

Oliveirense

(Away)
19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2
Penafiel
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
06 Sept
Atletico CP
3 : 1
Oliveirense
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 Leca 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 AD Marco 09 6 3 1 2 6:5 10
4 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
5 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Santarem 6 2 1 3 6:10 7
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Lusitano GC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)