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Luxembourg vs Sweden - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
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Match Events

23' Event
Korac S.
Assist: Sinani D.
31'
Jans L.
43'
Karlstrom J.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Luxembourg and Sweden finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Luxembourg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Luxembourg
15%
Draws
53%
Sweden
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sweden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Sweden carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sweden a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sweden have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Luxembourg Clean Sheet 16%
Sweden Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luxembourg Sweden
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 4 6
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 0.7 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2025 Friendly International
Luxembourg vs Sweden
1:0
Oct 7, 2017 World Championship
Sweden vs Luxembourg
8:0
Oct 7, 2016 World Championship
Luxembourg vs Sweden
0:1
Sep 7, 1999 Euro
Luxembourg vs Sweden
0:1
Mar 26, 1999 Euro
Sweden vs Luxembourg
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luxembourg Compare

Top Goalscorer Korac S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sweden Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luxembourg 23 / 100
Sweden 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luxembourg Sweden

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sweden Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Luxembourg scored in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Luxembourg has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Luxembourg VS Sweden
1 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Luxembourg

(Home)
06 Oct
Luxembourg
0 : 2
Bulgaria
03 Oct
Estonia
1 : 0
Luxembourg
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3
Iceland
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2
Luxembourg
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
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Sweden

(Away)
05 Oct
Romania
0 : 1
Sweden
02 Oct
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1 : 1
Sweden
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1
Poland
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
30 Jun
France
3 : 0
Sweden
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