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Lyon vs Fenerbahce - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Champions League Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Lyon Logo

Lyon

1 - 2
FT
Fenerbahce Logo

Fenerbahce

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Muriqi V.
28' Event
Brown A.
Assist: Greenwood M.
32'
Skriniar M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Lyon
35%
Draws
27%
Fenerbahce
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

27% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fenerbahce come out ahead of Lyon on wins alone.
  • 27% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Fenerbahce arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Fenerbahce, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lyon Clean Sheet 20%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lyon Fenerbahce
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 17
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.71 2.18
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Champions League
Lyon vs Fenerbahce
1:2
Aug 18, 2026 Champions League
Fenerbahce vs Lyon
1:1
Jan 23, 2025 Europa League
Fenerbahce vs Lyon
0:0
Jul 16, 2016 Club Friendly
Fenerbahce vs Lyon
0:0
Nov 3, 2004 Champions League
Lyon vs Fenerbahce
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Fofana M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Fenerbahce Compare

Top Goalscorer Muriqi V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brown A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lyon 36 / 100
Fenerbahce 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lyon Fenerbahce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fenerbahce Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Lyon remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Lyon scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Fenerbahce has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lyon VS Fenerbahce
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lyon

(Home)
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

Fenerbahce

(Away)
03 Oct
Turan
0 : 2
Fenerbahce
20 Sept
Fenerbahce
8 : 0
Eyupspor
14 Sept
Gaziantep
0 : 0
Fenerbahce
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 2
Besiktas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Borac Banja Luka 1
Levski Sofia 5
ML Vitebsk 1
Univ. Craiova 5
Omonia -
TBD -
Kairat Almaty 4
Sutjeska 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun -
TBD -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb -
Klaksvik 4
Bissen 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Drita 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby -
TBD -
Lincoln Red Imps 4
Inter Escaldes 2
Flora 4
Iberia 1999 5
TBD -
Slovan Bratislava -
Ararat-Armenia 4
Riga FC 3
Floriana 3
Shamrock Rovers 5
Petrocub Hincesti 2
KF Egnatia 7
TBD -
Celje -
Vikingur Reykjavik 3
Gyor 2
TBD -
H. Beer Sheva -
Tre Fiori 1
Larne 3
TBD -
Crvena zvezda -
Aarhus -
TBD -
TBD -
Lech Poznan -
Sabah Baku 4
TNS 1
Vardar 3
KuPS 4
Fenerbahce -
TBD -
TBD -
Gornik Zabrze -
Sturm Graz -
TBD -
TBD -
Hearts -
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Quarter-finals
Levski Sofia 3
Univ. Craiova 2
Omonia 1
Kairat Almaty 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun 3
Din. Zagreb 4
Klaksvik 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 3
Lincoln Red Imps 0
Iberia 1999 1
Slovan Bratislava 3
Ararat-Armenia 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
KF Egnatia 5
Celje 6
Vikingur Reykjavik 2
H. Beer Sheva 3
Larne 0
Crvena zvezda 9
Aarhus 6
Lech Poznan 5
Sabah Baku 3
KuPS 0
Fenerbahce 2
Gornik Zabrze 1
Sturm Graz 6
Hearts 0
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Semi-finals
Levski Sofia 2
Kairat Almaty 0
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Din. Zagreb 7
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 1
Slovan Bratislava 4
Ararat-Armenia 2
Celje 3
H. Beer Sheva 3
Crvena zvezda 0
Aarhus 2
Sabah Baku 5
Fenerbahce 3
Sturm Graz 0
Sparta Prague 2
Lyon 4
Olympiacos Piraeus 1
Nijmegen 2
Royale Union SG 5
Bodo/Glimt 6
Final
Levski Sofia 0
AEK 4
Celtic 4
LASK Linz 5
Din. Zagreb 3
Viking 5
Slovan Bratislava 3
Celje 2
H. Beer Sheva 4
Sabah Baku 6
Fenerbahce 3
Lyon 2
Nijmegen 1
Bodo/Glimt 6