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Macae vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Macae Logo

Macae

1 - 0
FT
Paraty Logo

Paraty

Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Wesley Manga
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Macae in this Carioca B2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Macae.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Macae
35%
Draws
41%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paraty

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Medium Confidence
  • Paraty have won more games recently than Macae.
  • Win probability leans Macae's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Macae Clean Sheet 20%
Paraty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macae Paraty
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2025 Carioca B2
Macae vs Paraty
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macae Compare

Top Goalscorer Wesley Manga
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Paraty Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macae 42 / 100
Paraty 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macae Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macae found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Paraty has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Macae remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Macae VS Paraty
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Macae

(Home)
23 Jun
Americano
2 : 1
Macae
17 Jun
Macae
0 : 0
Americano
07 Dec
Goytacaz
4 : 1
Macae
30 Nov
Macae
1 : 1
Goytacaz
23 Nov
Santa Cruz RJ
2 : 2
Macae
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)