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Macae vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Macae Logo

Macae

1 - 0
FT
Paraty Logo

Paraty

Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Wesley Manga
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Macae in this Carioca B2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Macae.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Macae
15%
Draws
0%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Macae

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Paraty have won more games recently than Macae.
  • Win probability leans Macae's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Macae Clean Sheet 20%
Paraty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macae Paraty
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.11 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2025 Carioca B2
Macae vs Paraty
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macae Compare

Top Goalscorer Wesley Manga
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Paraty Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macae 85 / 100
Paraty 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macae Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Macae Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Paraty has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Macae scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Paraty conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Macae VS Paraty
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Macae

(Home)
19 Sept
Campo Grande
2 : 1
Macae
12 Sept
Macae
2 : 0
Audax RJ
05 Sept
Goytacaz
1 : 0
Macae
23 Jun
Americano
2 : 1
Macae
17 Jun
Macae
0 : 0
Americano
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
21 Sept
7 de Abril
1 : 0
Paraty
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Campos AA
2 : 1
Paraty
30 Aug
Paraty
0 : 4
Belford Roxo
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)