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Macara vs Aucas

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista
Our Tip

Match Events

59'
Ayala M.
59'
Sub
Cazares J. In: Blanc G.
Out: Cazares J.
59'
Sub
Miranda M. In: Chamba T.
Out: Miranda M.

AI Match Summary

Macara host Aucas in the Liga Pro. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Macara have averaged 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded recently, against Aucas's 1.25 scored and 0.63 conceded. Past meetings favor Macara slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 5, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (0.56 - 1.00) back Aucas to edge this. Under markets carry more value than backing a winner outright.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Macara
20%
Draws
38%
Aucas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Aucas demonstrates higher offensive output (1.25 avg goals) than Macara (0.5 avg goals).
  • Model forecasts a 42% win probability edge for Macara.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Pro provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Macara Clean Sheet 20%
Aucas Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Aucas
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 15 15
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
0:1
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
3:2
Jul 6, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
1:4
Mar 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 42 / 100
Aucas 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Aucas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macara scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Aucas let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Macara went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Aucas lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Macara VS Aucas
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle18141340:1943
2Aucas1895421:1632
3Barcelona SC1886420:1330
4LDU Quito1884619:1428
5Dep. Cuenca1883718:2027
6U. Catolica1875628:1826
7Macara1875618:1826
8Emelec1866614:1724
9Tecnico U.1872919:1923
10Leones del Norte1865719:1923
11Orense1865722:2423
12Guayaquil City1864816:2122
13Mushuc Runa1856723:2721
14Libertad1846817:2518
15Delfin1845910:1817
16Manta1834117:2313