Sport Picks
Maceratese vs Recanatese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 
Match Events
20'
20'
Scorza C.
70'
70'
Ciabuschi J.
85'
85'
Nasic A.
AI Match Summary
Maceratese in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maceratese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maceratese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Maceratese have won more games recently than Recanatese.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Maceratese taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 68%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 21%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Maceratese | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 15 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Recanatese
2:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
2:2
Apr 19, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Recanatese
1:0
Dec 7, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Maceratese Compare
Top Goalscorer Ciabuschi J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nasic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Recanatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Scorza C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Maceratese 50 / 100
Recanatese 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Maceratese Recanatese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Maceratese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Maceratese scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Recanatese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Maceratese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Maceratese VS Recanatese
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Maceratese
(Home) 04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1 Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2 Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1 Santegidiese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3 Teramo
26 Apr
Maceratese
1 : 1 Giulianova
12 Apr
Maceratese
2 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 3
Recanatese
(Away) 04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1 Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1 Recanatese
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1 Recanatese
26 Apr
Teramo
2 : 2 Recanatese
12 Apr
Maceratese
2 : 1 Recanatese
29 Mar
Calcio Chieti
2 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
