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World

Friendly International 2024 Mahamasina Municipal Stadium

Burundi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Madagascar play Burundi in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Madagascar averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Burundi averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Madagascar won 2, Burundi won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 22, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Madagascar and 1.19 for Burundi. This points to a Madagascar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%

Madagascar

15%

Draws

30%

Burundi

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Madagascar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Madagascar picked up more points recently compared to Burundi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 64%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Madagascar Clean Sheet 20%

Burundi Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 58%

Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Madagascar	Burundi
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	13	9
Draws	3	4
Losses	12	15
Goals Scored	1.39	1.14
Goals Conceded	1.39	1.29
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2024 Friendly International

Madagascar vs Burundi

Possession: 45% - 50% Cards: 2 - 0

1:0

Jun 27, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations

Madagascar vs Burundi

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Raveloson R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Burundi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar 54 / 100

Burundi 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Madagascar Burundi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madagascar Win (1)

Secondary Pick Madagascar & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.1%

2.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Madagascar attacking → ← attacking Burundi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madagascar scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Burundi let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Madagascar went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Burundi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 31

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38